Why Wasn't the Russian Meteor Detected Before it Entered the Atmosphere?

By William Cooke, Marshall Space Flight Center, AL

This is the question that keeps cropping up, and it deserves an answer. Images are being posted showing the fragments and they look like ordinary chondrites of asteroidal origin. This material is dark, and not very reflective, which makes it difficult to spot out in outer space, especially if the object is bus or house size.

Astronomers measure brightnesses in magnitudes -- the larger, more positive the number, the fainter the object is. The Sun is magnitude -27, the planet Venus -4, the star Vega 0, and the faintest star you can see is about +6. The best asteroid survey telescopes have a magnitude limit of about +24, which is about 16 million times fainter than what you can see with the unaided eye.

We can now use the latest orbit determined by Dave Clark (and yes, the meteor came roughly from the East, not from the North as stated in the initial NASA reports) and combine it with the estimated size and reflectivity to figure out when we should have seen the meteoroid in the asteroid survey telescopes. The calculations can be displayed in a graph like this one. Note that, even with very large telescopes, the meteoroid would not have been visible until a mere 2 hours (135,000 km from Earth) before impact -- very little time to sound a warning.

Even if we had been looking at the right spot and the right time, there is another problem -- the meteoroid would be in the daylit sky, and telescopes cannot see faint objects in the daytime.

Simply put, the meteoroid was too small for the survey telescopes and came at us out of the Sun.

So how can we tell that the Russian meteor isn't related to asteroid 2012 DA14?

One way is to look at meteor showers -- the Orionids all have similar orbits to their parent comet, Halley. Similarly, the Geminids all move in orbits that closely resemble the asteroid 3200 Phaethon, which produced them. So if the Russian meteor was a fragment of 2012 DA14, it would have an orbit very similar to that of the asteroid.

It does not...

If you look at the image, the orbit of the Earth is the green circle. That of 2012 DA14 is the blue ellipse that is almost entirely within the orbit of the Earth; notice that it is close to circular. The other blue ellipse, stretching way beyond the orbit of Mars, is the first determination of the orbit of the Russian meteor. Notice that the two are nothing alike; in fact, they aren't even close.

This is one reason -- a big one -- why NASA says the asteroid 2012 DA14 are not connected.

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Words of Wisdom (Twelve to be Exact)

By Shilpa Chirackel, Freshman at University of California, Riverside

 Good advice for those entering college or university:

• These next four years will determine the next forty years.
• You really do have to study. Skimming through the textbook and hoping for the best will not work anymore.
• To survive college, it is imperative to learn how to manage time.
• Do not procrastinate!
• Do not take 8 am classes. Most likely you won’t attend them. I know I can’t.
• Meet as many people as you can…
• Keep track of important dates such as the last day to withdraw from a class.
• Be yourself.
• Meet with your teachers and/or teacher assistants regularly. Go to their office hours. I promise that they are not scary individuals.
• Do not give into peer pressure.
• Never lose sight of your goals.
• Most importantly, HAVE FUN!

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Building a Strong Space Program

By Charles Bolden, NASA Administrator

Last week in his State of the Union address, President Obama emphasized that we must make America a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing. At NASA, we depend on a strong US-based manufacturing capability for the success of our space and aeronautics programs.

We are building the next generation of rockets and a crew capsule that will take us farther into the solar system than we’ve ever been. And while we are focusing on deep space exploration and discovery, our American partners in the commercial space industry are building rockets to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) with cargo, and will soon be launching our astronauts into space from U.S. soil.

American businesses are building the most sophisticated space telescope ever made – the James Webb Telescope – and others fabricated the robotic dust-removal tool being used by Curiosity on Mars as this car-size rover begins drilling operations on the Red Planet. U.S. companies are building expandable space habitat technology to test on orbit on the ISS, and satellites that look back at Earth and inform us of severe weather events and changes in our climate. These firms are building unmanned aerial vehicles that fly through hurricanes and above wildfires, providing critical information to forecasters and first responders, as well as scientists on the ground who analysis this life-saving data.

U.S. manufacturing is a vital part of the American space and aeronautics programs. Although we work in space and fly through the air, every dollar of NASA’s budget is spent right here on Earth. A vibrant American manufacturing sector means a strong space program with plenty of future high-tech jobs for workers now – and into the future.

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The Independant Activity Period

By Brent Belland, INSPIRE Grad, Freshman, MIT

College is naturally about growth and academic development, but it need not be just a rigid schedule of classes. During January, my college encourages an active, exploration-based take on growth Independent Activities Period (IAP). Yes, there are still classes, but the semester is designed for an in-depth look into various interesting fields with sometimes-quirky classes (more about those later).

Part of the Institute’s goals for IAP is just to release the stress of its students, and there are many creative ways to distress (in fact, IAP is entirely optional, so anyone who is too stressed can simply take an extra month’s break). Every year MIT has an annual tradition of the mystery hunt, for example, that tasks teams of puzzlers with the most enjoyably challenging, unique puzzles imaginable, from analyzing seemingly random coin flips to listening to a sound from six sources “tracing” out the answer to the puzzle (they can be really crazy!). Yet, since IAP has a less heavy workload than a traditional semester, I have had extra time to enjoy talking with friends and appreciating the snowy weather (especially since I come from South California)—in short, we MIT students are given time during IAP to appreciate what might otherwise be forgotten in a bustle of pure academics.

But, classes are still a key part of IAP. MIT holds many varied classes during this period, from seminars on how to select a major or mentor to lectures about nuclear proliferation and “Charm School” (a series of classes where students learn business etiquette on their way to earning a Ch.D - Doctorate in Charm). Even the academic for credit courses can be wildly different than a stereotypical class. For example, my brother is taking a course about making iOS game apps that culminates in a competition judged by industry professionals with huge prizes! There can also be the more standard classes, though; I am taking a course in Lagrangian mechanics. While no prizes are awarded at the end of the class, I have found the focused time on this complex topic ideal for learning and understanding it deeply. While I am taking a more typical “college course”, I am also enjoying learning the atypical sport squash during this time.

Overall, IAP is designed to let each student lead the way to explore personally exciting, meaningful ideas, classes, and experiences, regardless of how quirky they may be. Despite the fact that my college purposefully sets apart a time for these activities, though, the principles of this period still apply at any time. If something is interesting to you, set apart some time for it each day to delve into it. As I constantly hear, “a task expands to take the time allotted to complete it,” so set apart some time now so you can explore your interests without pushing them off.  That way every day you can have an IAP of your own.

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LiveChat Roundup - 2/14/13

By Jim Gerard, INSPIRE Education Specialist, KSC, FL

Last night I went to bed pleased with the evening's LiveChat with meteor specialist Bill Cooke from Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama. I asked him to come on and chat about the close flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 later today. It was a great time having Mr. Cooke come back to to share with our community again. Little did either of us know we would wake up to this:

A multi-ton meteoroid (or small asteroid) entered the atmosphere at 37, 000 MPH producing what astronomers would refer to as a day-time bolide. You can do an internet search and find many examples of these bolides, but this was a big one. In the dash-cam video above you can see the body beginning to incandesce as it reaches an increasingly denser atmosphere, finally reaching a point where it can no longer compress the gasses in front of it creating an explosion. You would expect an explosion that large would produce a pretty large bang, but that  fireball is a little farther away than it is perceived. Our mind pictures it like a jetliner, a few miles high and ten or so miles away. But this is much higher and farther, meaning the sound takes longer to travel.

As you can see, the smoke trail has had a couple minutes to expand before the shock wave (essentially a sonic boom combined with the explosion) hits, trailed by smaller pops probably caused by the breakup of the asteroid. It is reported that a crater has been discovered, but no reports of the meteor or fragments striking anyone. Many hundreds have been injured by the effect of the shockwave, mostly from falling glass and plaster.

Such a fireball could happen anyplace, anytime. I have seen one daytime bolide and many at night, though none this large. Keep your eyes open and one day you may be witness to such an event!

Next week, we welcome back Dr. Frank Summers to share the latest and greatest images from the Hubble Space Telescope. Don't miss it, or the INSPIRE Cafe that precedes it, next Thursday at 8pm CT!

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The Upcoming Asteroid Flyby -- Can I See It?

By William Cooke, MSFC, AL

This is the most common question we are asked, and the answer is "maybe." It all depends on where you are located and what sort of equipment you have.

Closest approach will be around 19:25 UTC on February 15; this will be when the asteroid will be at its brightest. Even at this time, when 2012 DA14 is only about 17,000 miles above Earth's surface, it will not be visible to the unaided eye due to its small size. Observers in Indonesia (which is favored to see close approach) will need binoculars to catch a glimpse of the asteroid as it moves rapidly through the sky.

The rest of us will need to use a telescope. In North America, 2012 DA14 will be no brighter than magnitude 11 when the Sun sets on the 15th. This is over 60 times fainter than the faintest star you can see with your eyes under perfect sky conditions. Also, it will still be moving quickly through the constellations -- over 3 degrees (6 Moon diameters) per hour -- and this speed, combined with its fading, will make it a challenging target, even for experienced amateurs. Algorithms in many of the software programs used to drive telescopes are not suited for fast movers like this one, and may point the telescope in the wrong locations (A test we conducted using a popular software package showed that it would point the telescope over a degree away from the actual position of DA14, well outside the one half degree field of view of most instruments). So seeing 2012 DA14 before it fades beyond the limit of most amateur telescopes will not be a simple task; it will require some thought and advanced planning. An invaluable tool in planning your observations is the JPL Horizons website (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov), which can calculate the precise positions of 2012 DA14 for your location.

So can I see 2012 DA 14? The answer is yes -- if you have access to a decent telescope, if you take the time to figure out where you need to look in advance, and if your sky is clear. A lot of work, but the reward is a glimpse of a house-size visitor from another part of the Solar System as it whizzes by our planet at a distance closer than many of the communications satellites we depend upon in our daily lives. A rare event, to be sure.

Those without telescope access may also get a glimpse. NASA will be streaming the latter part of the asteroid flyby on Ustream at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-msfc - if the skies are clear in Alabama and the MSFC-based telescope can view DA14, you can use the Internet to get a peek at 2012 DA14 (which will look like a fast moving star) from the comfort of your home.

(Note: Mr. Cooke will be the speaker at the LiveChat Thursday, February 14 at 8pm CT)

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